Contrarian Opinions: Texas Rangers are on the Rise

    Rangers’ baseball is going through major changes in 2020. Globe Life Park is becoming Globe Life Field and the laughable Rangers are becoming playoff contenders. 

The Rangers used to rule the AL West; from 2010-2016, they had five seasons of 90 or more wins and five playoff appearances. Since then, the team’s been rebuilding and the division has been taken by the Astros.

In 2013, the Astros were implanted in the AL West where they would now compete for the rule of Texas baseball with the Rangers. The Astros hadn’t made the playoffs since 2005 and their drought would continue 10 more years, until 2015.

After years of tanking, the Astros had constructed an analytically driven front office and managed to build an elite farm system. In 2015 and 2016, hints of the remodeled Astros showed but never anything to marvel at.

In 2017, everything changed. Late in the season, they added Justin Verlander in an attempt to make a playoff push. This season was the beginning of the Astros’ dominant reign over the American League: in the past three seasons the Astros have eclipsed 100 wins every season and made two World Series appearances. Despite their great success, this chaotic season would later become better known as the season that the Astros stole signs.

Though cheating may have helped them win a few close games, solely cheating can’t make a team that’s anything less than great win that many games or everyone would be doing it. So even though the Astros were caught and the team had to fire a lot of their staff, they’ll continue winning the AL West and maybe the American League unless the players themselves decline.

With hardly any chance to win their division, the Rangers must look to a wild card spot. Luckily, the prospective changes in the 2020 season benefit the Rangers. Both how matchups will be constructed (all within the region) and an expanded playoff would make them potential playoff contenders.

When projecting the American League in 2020, despite the countless unknowns, it’s pretty clear that the Yankees, Twins and Astros are favored to win their respective divisions. This would leave the Rays, Red Sox, Indians and A’s to share two wild card spots, with the Rangers on the outside looking in.

The playoff expansion due to COVID-19 would greatly boost the Rangers’ odds at making the playoffs but the MLB’s attempt at cutting down on travel could further benefit the Rangers. They’d have matchups exclusively against the AL West and their sister division, the NL West.

For the Rangers, this would mean a greater proportion of matchups against inferior teams than what a normal season would provide. Of the teams in the West divisions, I’d rank the Rangers only behind the Astros, Dodgers, Padres and A’s, meaning that they’d win the vast majority of their games. If the MLB decides to format the schedule like this, it would also mean that the Indians’ schedule would be easier, whereas the Red Sox’ and Rays’ would increase in difficulty.

It’s impossible to know how the season is formatted until an official report comes out, but if it’s like this, the Rangers have a small chance to be the third American League wild card team which would be a playoff team if the playoffs are expanded.

Even if everything goes perfectly to favor the Rangers in terms of how the MLB is constructed this year, they still need to play better than 2019 Rangers who won 78 games.

Their 78 wins are appropriate for the team’s performance according to what their -68 run differential and ninth ranked BABIP suggest, so if the Rangers make the playoffs, the primary reason why has to be that their players improved.

For years, the Rangers have prided themselves on being a high scoring team thanks to their extreme park factors. According to parkfactors.com, from 2010-2016, Globe Life Park achieved a +114 park factor, making it the seventh most hitter friendly park in the league. A big part of this is Dallas’ hot, dry air which allows the ball to fly further than it would in most other locations.

With the Rangers now moving to Globe Life Field, these park factors may be no more. It’s impossible to say until it’s actually played in, but according to Evan Grant’s interview with the Rangers executive vice president for business operations, the Rangers “think the park is going to play fair”. This would be a major change from their previous home and would certainly impact the team’s performance.

The new park will have a retractable roof to protect the fans and players from the blistering Dallas sun, which in turn, could change the park factors. The main reason that Globe Life Park’s park factors were so extreme was the heat, so if the roof is closed, the park factors could neutralize.

The new park isn’t the only reason why, but the Rangers are shifting to a more pitching-centric style of play than in years past. With additions of Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, the Rangers’ five-man rotation is considerably improved upon 2018.

Just two years ago, Kluber finished third in Cy Young voting, and after just one injury, he’s been left for dead. With that said, he is 34, but he’s also one of the best pitchers of the past decade so it would be perfectly reasonable if he returned to ace form. Furthermore, Gibson and Lyles, though nothing special, are much better than the backend of the 2018 Rangers’ starting rotation.

As for returning starters, Lance Lynn is coming off of an obscure breakout campaign off of which he’ll significantly negatively regress. Even if Lynn regresses a lot, considering the new park factors, his stat line could still somewhat resemble his 2019 season. Also returning is Mike Minor who will continue to eat innings for the Rangers so that their putrid bullpen won’t have to pitch for as long.

Other than Jose Leclerc, and maybe even including him, the Rangers bullpen is bad. Luckily, Kluber, Lynn and Minor are all great at consuming innings, so in order to win a lot of games, the Rangers have to rely heavily on the starters eating innings instead of their bullpen.

On offense, the Rangers have a league-average, if not better, bat at every position except for first base. Joey Gallo is the premier power hitter in baseball, and he showed a major improvement in batting average through 56 games last year. Gallo was plagued with an oblique strain and later, a hamate bone injury which ended his season. Before his injuries, Gallo had 20 home runs, pacing him for a little less than 60 if he had played the whole year, a .286/.424/.683 triple slash line and a 1.107 OPS. These stats were probably not replicable in the second half of the season since he had a .386 BABIP. Gallo did show that he had the potential to be the best hitter in the game if everything goes ideally.

Willie Calhoun and Nick Solak are young, exciting bats that have a floor of consistent contributors but upside of being special. Calhoun is a power bat that can retain a high average around .270 and Solak is jack of all trades, master of none kind of guy.

Many experts see little to nothing in this team and view them as needing a further rebuild but I’m more intrigued than the consensus by a lot of the Rangers’ players. It could be this year, but I definitely think that if they play it right, this roster can go somewhere in the near future.

Making the playoffs might not be in the cards this year, but if all of the changes benefitting the Rangers, it could all fall right. The more likely outcome, however, is still a good one: if they realize that they aren’t in contention this year, they can trade for some prospects and improve their future in exchange for some of their old, decent hitters or a starter like Minor or Kluber to a current contender for some prospects, this team could dethrone the Astros in the slow, methodical manner that the Astros dethroned them.